stock-bot/apps/stock/orchestrator/test-mean-reversion.ts

import { RustBacktestAdapter } from './src/backtest/RustBacktestAdapter';
import { IServiceContainer } from '@stock-bot/di';
import { BacktestConfig } from './src/types';

// Mock container
const mockContainer: IServiceContainer = {
  logger: {
    info: console.log,
    error: console.error,
    warn: console.warn,
    debug: console.log,
  },
  mongodb: {} as any,
  postgres: {} as any,
  redis: {} as any,
  custom: {},
} as IServiceContainer;

// Mock storage service that returns test data
class MockStorageService {
  async getHistoricalBars(symbol: string, startDate: Date, endDate: Date, frequency: string) {
    console.log(`MockStorageService: Getting bars for ${symbol} from ${startDate} to ${endDate}`);
    
    // Generate test data with mean reverting behavior
    const bars = [];
    const startTime = startDate.getTime();
    const endTime = endDate.getTime();
    const dayMs = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
    
    let time = startTime;
    let dayIndex = 0;
    
    // Base prices for different symbols
    const basePrices = {
      'AAPL': 150,
      'GOOGL': 2800,
      'MSFT': 400,
    };
    
    const basePrice = basePrices[symbol as keyof typeof basePrices] || 100;
    
    while (time <= endTime) {
      // Create mean reverting price movement
      // Price oscillates around the base price with increasing then decreasing deviations
      const cycleLength = 40; // 40 day cycle
      const positionInCycle = dayIndex % cycleLength;
      const halfCycle = cycleLength / 2;
      
      let deviation;
      if (positionInCycle < halfCycle) {
        // First half: price moves away from mean
        deviation = (positionInCycle / halfCycle) * 0.1; // Up to 10% deviation
      } else {
        // Second half: price reverts to mean
        deviation = ((cycleLength - positionInCycle) / halfCycle) * 0.1;
      }
      
      // Alternate between above and below mean
      const cycleNumber = Math.floor(dayIndex / cycleLength);
      const multiplier = cycleNumber % 2 === 0 ? 1 : -1;
      
      const price = basePrice * (1 + multiplier * deviation);
      
      // Add some noise
      const noise = (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.02 * basePrice;
      const finalPrice = price + noise;
      
      bars.push({
        timestamp: new Date(time),
        open: finalPrice * 0.99,
        high: finalPrice * 1.01,
        low: finalPrice * 0.98,
        close: finalPrice,
        volume: 1000000,
        vwap: finalPrice,
      });
      
      time += dayMs;
      dayIndex++;
    }
    
    console.log(`Generated ${bars.length} bars for ${symbol}, first close: ${bars[0].close.toFixed(2)}, last close: ${bars[bars.length - 1].close.toFixed(2)}`);
    return bars;
  }
}

// Test the backtest
async function testMeanReversionBacktest() {
  console.log('=== Testing Mean Reversion Backtest ===\n');
  
  // Create adapter with mock storage
  const adapter = new RustBacktestAdapter(mockContainer);
  (adapter as any).storageService = new MockStorageService();
  
  const config: BacktestConfig = {
    name: 'Mean Reversion Test',
    strategy: 'mean_reversion',
    symbols: ['AAPL', 'GOOGL', 'MSFT'],
    startDate: '2024-01-01T00:00:00Z',
    endDate: '2024-06-01T00:00:00Z',
    initialCapital: 100000,
    commission: 0.001,
    slippage: 0.0001,
    dataFrequency: '1d',
    config: {
      lookbackPeriod: 20,
      entryThreshold: 2.0,
      positionSize: 100,
    },
  };
  
  try {
    console.log('Starting backtest...\n');
    const result = await adapter.runBacktest(config);
    
    console.log('\n=== Backtest Results ===');
    console.log(`Status: ${result.status}`);
    console.log(`Total Trades: ${result.metrics.totalTrades}`);
    console.log(`Profitable Trades: ${result.metrics.profitableTrades}`);
    console.log(`Win Rate: ${result.metrics.winRate.toFixed(2)}%`);
    console.log(`Total Return: ${result.metrics.totalReturn.toFixed(2)}%`);
    console.log(`Sharpe Ratio: ${result.metrics.sharpeRatio.toFixed(2)}`);
    console.log(`Max Drawdown: ${result.metrics.maxDrawdown.toFixed(2)}%`);
    
    console.log('\n=== Trade Analysis ===');
    console.log(`Number of completed trades: ${result.trades.length}`);
    
    // Analyze trades by symbol
    const tradesBySymbol: Record<string, any[]> = {};
    result.trades.forEach(trade => {
      if (!tradesBySymbol[trade.symbol]) {
        tradesBySymbol[trade.symbol] = [];
      }
      tradesBySymbol[trade.symbol].push(trade);
    });
    
    Object.entries(tradesBySymbol).forEach(([symbol, trades]) => {
      console.log(`\n${symbol}: ${trades.length} trades`);
      const longTrades = trades.filter(t => t.side === 'long');
      const shortTrades = trades.filter(t => t.side === 'short');
      console.log(`  - Long trades: ${longTrades.length}`);
      console.log(`  - Short trades: ${shortTrades.length}`);
      
      // Count buy/sell pairs
      const buyTrades = trades.filter(t => t.side === 'buy');
      const sellTrades = trades.filter(t => t.side === 'sell');
      console.log(`  - Buy trades: ${buyTrades.length}`);
      console.log(`  - Sell trades: ${sellTrades.length}`);
      
      // Show first few trades
      console.log(`  - First 3 trades:`);
      trades.slice(0, 3).forEach((trade, idx) => {
        console.log(`    ${idx + 1}. ${trade.side} - Price: $${trade.price.toFixed(2)}, Quantity: ${trade.quantity}${trade.pnl ? `, PnL: $${trade.pnl.toFixed(2)}` : ''}`);
      });
    });
    
    // Check position distribution
    const allDurations = result.trades.map(t => t.duration / 86400); // Convert to days
    const avgDuration = allDurations.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / allDurations.length;
    const minDuration = Math.min(...allDurations);
    const maxDuration = Math.max(...allDurations);
    
    console.log('\n=== Duration Analysis ===');
    console.log(`Average trade duration: ${avgDuration.toFixed(1)} days`);
    console.log(`Min duration: ${minDuration.toFixed(1)} days`);
    console.log(`Max duration: ${maxDuration.toFixed(1)} days`);
    
    // Final positions
    console.log('\n=== Final Positions ===');
    Object.entries(result.finalPositions).forEach(([symbol, position]) => {
      console.log(`${symbol}: ${position}`);
    });
    
  } catch (error) {
    console.error('Backtest failed:', error);
  }
}

// Run the test
testMeanReversionBacktest().catch(console.error);