work on calculations

This commit is contained in:
Bojan Kucera 2025-06-04 18:16:16 -04:00
parent 3d910a13e0
commit ab7ef2b678
20 changed files with 1343 additions and 222 deletions

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/**
* Test suite for position sizing calculations
*/
import { describe, it, expect } from 'bun:test';
import {
fixedRiskPositionSize,
kellyPositionSize,
fractionalKellyPositionSize,
volatilityTargetPositionSize,
equalWeightPositionSize,
atrBasedPositionSize,
expectancyPositionSize,
monteCarloPositionSize,
sharpeOptimizedPositionSize,
fixedFractionalPositionSize,
volatilityAdjustedPositionSize,
correlationAdjustedPositionSize,
calculatePortfolioHeat,
dynamicPositionSize,
liquidityConstrainedPositionSize,
multiTimeframePositionSize,
riskParityPositionSize,
validatePositionSize,
type PositionSizeParams,
type KellyParams,
type VolatilityParams
} from '../../src/calculations/position-sizing';
describe('Position Sizing Calculations', () => {
describe('fixedRiskPositionSize', () => {
it('should calculate correct position size for long position', () => {
const params: PositionSizeParams = {
accountSize: 100000,
riskPercentage: 2,
entryPrice: 100,
stopLoss: 95,
leverage: 1
};
const result = fixedRiskPositionSize(params);
// Risk amount: 100000 * 0.02 = 2000
// Risk per share: 100 - 95 = 5
// Position size: 2000 / 5 = 400 shares
expect(result).toBe(400);
});
it('should calculate correct position size for short position', () => {
const params: PositionSizeParams = {
accountSize: 100000,
riskPercentage: 2,
entryPrice: 100,
stopLoss: 105,
leverage: 1
};
const result = fixedRiskPositionSize(params);
// Risk per share: |100 - 105| = 5
// Position size: 2000 / 5 = 400 shares
expect(result).toBe(400);
});
it('should return 0 for invalid inputs', () => {
const params: PositionSizeParams = {
accountSize: 0,
riskPercentage: 2,
entryPrice: 100,
stopLoss: 95
};
expect(fixedRiskPositionSize(params)).toBe(0);
});
it('should return 0 when entry price equals stop loss', () => {
const params: PositionSizeParams = {
accountSize: 100000,
riskPercentage: 2,
entryPrice: 100,
stopLoss: 100
};
expect(fixedRiskPositionSize(params)).toBe(0);
});
});
describe('kellyPositionSize', () => {
it('should calculate correct Kelly position size', () => {
const params: KellyParams = {
winRate: 0.6,
averageWin: 150,
averageLoss: -100
};
const result = kellyPositionSize(params, 100000);
// Kelly formula: f = (bp - q) / b
// b = 150/100 = 1.5, p = 0.6, q = 0.4
// f = (1.5 * 0.6 - 0.4) / 1.5 = (0.9 - 0.4) / 1.5 = 0.5 / 1.5 = 0.333
// With safety factor of 0.25: 0.333 * 0.25 = 0.083
// Capped at 0.25, so result should be 0.083
// Position: 100000 * 0.083 = 8300
expect(result).toBeCloseTo(8333, 0);
});
it('should return 0 for negative expectancy', () => {
const params: KellyParams = {
winRate: 0.3,
averageWin: 100,
averageLoss: -200
};
const result = kellyPositionSize(params, 100000);
expect(result).toBe(0);
});
it('should return 0 for invalid inputs', () => {
const params: KellyParams = {
winRate: 0,
averageWin: 100,
averageLoss: -100
};
expect(kellyPositionSize(params, 100000)).toBe(0);
});
});
describe('volatilityTargetPositionSize', () => {
it('should calculate correct volatility-targeted position size', () => {
const params: VolatilityParams = {
price: 100,
volatility: 0.20,
targetVolatility: 0.10,
lookbackDays: 30
};
const result = volatilityTargetPositionSize(params, 100000);
// Volatility ratio: 0.10 / 0.20 = 0.5
// Position value: 100000 * 0.5 = 50000
// Position size: 50000 / 100 = 500 shares
expect(result).toBe(500);
});
it('should cap leverage at 2x', () => {
const params: VolatilityParams = {
price: 100,
volatility: 0.05,
targetVolatility: 0.20,
lookbackDays: 30
};
const result = volatilityTargetPositionSize(params, 100000);
// Volatility ratio would be 4, but capped at 2
// Position value: 100000 * 2 = 200000
// Position size: 200000 / 100 = 2000 shares
expect(result).toBe(2000);
});
});
describe('equalWeightPositionSize', () => {
it('should calculate equal weight position size', () => {
const result = equalWeightPositionSize(100000, 5, 100);
// Position value per asset: 100000 / 5 = 20000
// Position size: 20000 / 100 = 200 shares
expect(result).toBe(200);
});
it('should return 0 for invalid inputs', () => {
expect(equalWeightPositionSize(100000, 0, 100)).toBe(0);
expect(equalWeightPositionSize(100000, 5, 0)).toBe(0);
});
});
describe('atrBasedPositionSize', () => {
it('should calculate ATR-based position size', () => {
const result = atrBasedPositionSize(100000, 2, 5, 2, 100);
// Risk amount: 100000 * 0.02 = 2000
// Stop distance: 5 * 2 = 10
// Position size: 2000 / 10 = 200 shares
expect(result).toBe(200);
});
it('should return 0 for zero ATR', () => {
const result = atrBasedPositionSize(100000, 2, 0, 2, 100);
expect(result).toBe(0);
});
});
describe('expectancyPositionSize', () => {
it('should calculate expectancy-based position size', () => {
const result = expectancyPositionSize(100000, 0.6, 150, -100, 5);
// Expectancy: 0.6 * 150 - 0.4 * 100 = 90 - 40 = 50
// Expectancy ratio: 50 / 100 = 0.5
// Risk percentage: min(0.5 * 0.5, 5) = min(0.25, 5) = 0.25
// Position: 100000 * 0.0025 = 250
expect(result).toBe(250);
});
it('should return 0 for negative expectancy', () => {
const result = expectancyPositionSize(100000, 0.3, 100, -200);
expect(result).toBe(0);
});
});
describe('correlationAdjustedPositionSize', () => {
it('should adjust position size based on correlation', () => {
const existingPositions = [
{ size: 1000, correlation: 0.5 },
{ size: 500, correlation: 0.3 }
];
const result = correlationAdjustedPositionSize(1000, existingPositions, 0.5);
// Should reduce position size based on correlation risk
expect(result).toBeLessThan(1000);
expect(result).toBeGreaterThan(0);
});
it('should return original size when no existing positions', () => {
const result = correlationAdjustedPositionSize(1000, [], 0.5);
expect(result).toBe(1000);
});
});
describe('calculatePortfolioHeat', () => {
it('should calculate portfolio heat correctly', () => {
const positions = [
{ value: 10000, risk: 500 },
{ value: 15000, risk: 750 },
{ value: 20000, risk: 1000 }
];
const result = calculatePortfolioHeat(positions, 100000);
// Total risk: 500 + 750 + 1000 = 2250
// Heat: (2250 / 100000) * 100 = 2.25%
expect(result).toBe(2.25);
});
it('should handle empty positions array', () => {
const result = calculatePortfolioHeat([], 100000);
expect(result).toBe(0);
});
it('should cap heat at 100%', () => {
const positions = [
{ value: 50000, risk: 150000 }
];
const result = calculatePortfolioHeat(positions, 100000);
expect(result).toBe(100);
});
});
describe('dynamicPositionSize', () => {
it('should adjust position size based on market conditions', () => {
const result = dynamicPositionSize(1000, 0.25, 0.15, 0.05, 0.10);
// Volatility adjustment: 0.15 / 0.25 = 0.6
// Drawdown adjustment: 1 - (0.05 / 0.10) = 0.5
// Adjusted size: 1000 * 0.6 * 0.5 = 300
expect(result).toBe(300);
});
it('should handle high drawdown', () => {
const result = dynamicPositionSize(1000, 0.20, 0.15, 0.15, 0.10);
// Should significantly reduce position size due to high drawdown
expect(result).toBeLessThan(500);
});
});
describe('liquidityConstrainedPositionSize', () => {
it('should constrain position size based on liquidity', () => {
const result = liquidityConstrainedPositionSize(1000, 10000, 0.05, 100);
// Max shares: 10000 * 0.05 = 500
// Should return min(1000, 500) = 500
expect(result).toBe(500);
});
it('should return desired size when liquidity allows', () => {
const result = liquidityConstrainedPositionSize(500, 20000, 0.05, 100);
// Max shares: 20000 * 0.05 = 1000
// Should return min(500, 1000) = 500
expect(result).toBe(500);
});
});
describe('multiTimeframePositionSize', () => {
it('should weight signals correctly', () => {
const result = multiTimeframePositionSize(100000, 0.8, 0.6, 0.4, 2);
// Weighted signal: 0.8 * 0.2 + 0.6 * 0.3 + 0.4 * 0.5 = 0.16 + 0.18 + 0.2 = 0.54
// Adjusted risk: 2 * 0.54 = 1.08%
// Position: 100000 * 0.0108 = 1080
expect(result).toBe(1080);
});
it('should clamp signals to valid range', () => {
const result = multiTimeframePositionSize(100000, 2, -2, 1.5, 2);
// Signals should be clamped to [-1, 1]
// Weighted: 1 * 0.2 + (-1) * 0.3 + 1 * 0.5 = 0.2 - 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.4
// Adjusted risk: 2 * 0.4 = 0.8%
expect(result).toBe(800);
});
});
describe('riskParityPositionSize', () => {
it('should allocate based on inverse volatility', () => {
const assets = [
{ volatility: 0.10, price: 100 },
{ volatility: 0.20, price: 200 }
];
const result = riskParityPositionSize(assets, 0.15, 100000);
// Asset 1: 1/0.10 = 10, Asset 2: 1/0.20 = 5
// Total inverse vol: 15
// Weights: Asset 1: 10/15 = 0.667, Asset 2: 5/15 = 0.333
expect(result).toHaveLength(2);
expect(result[0]).toBeGreaterThan(result[1]);
});
it('should handle zero volatility assets', () => {
const assets = [
{ volatility: 0, price: 100 },
{ volatility: 0.20, price: 200 }
];
const result = riskParityPositionSize(assets, 0.15, 100000);
expect(result[0]).toBe(0);
expect(result[1]).toBeGreaterThan(0);
});
});
describe('validatePositionSize', () => {
it('should validate position size against limits', () => {
const result = validatePositionSize(500, 100, 100000, 10, 2);
// Position value: 500 * 100 = 50000 (50% of account)
// This exceeds 10% limit
expect(result.isValid).toBe(false);
expect(result.violations).toContain('Position exceeds maximum 10% of account');
expect(result.adjustedSize).toBe(100); // 10000 / 100
});
it('should pass validation for reasonable position', () => {
const result = validatePositionSize(50, 100, 100000, 10, 2);
// Position value: 50 * 100 = 5000 (5% of account)
expect(result.isValid).toBe(true);
expect(result.violations).toHaveLength(0);
expect(result.adjustedSize).toBe(50);
});
it('should handle fractional shares', () => {
const result = validatePositionSize(0.5, 100, 100000, 10, 2);
expect(result.isValid).toBe(false);
expect(result.violations).toContain('Position size too small (less than 1 share)');
expect(result.adjustedSize).toBe(0);
});
});
});

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import { describe, it, expect } from 'bun:test';
import { dateUtils } from '../src/dateUtils';
describe('dateUtils', () => {
describe('isTradingDay', () => {
it('should return true for weekdays (Monday-Friday)', () => {
// Monday (June 2, 2025)
expect(dateUtils.isTradingDay(new Date(2025, 5, 2))).toBe(true);
// Tuesday (June 3, 2025)
expect(dateUtils.isTradingDay(new Date(2025, 5, 3))).toBe(true);
// Wednesday (June 4, 2025)
expect(dateUtils.isTradingDay(new Date(2025, 5, 4))).toBe(true);
// Thursday (June 5, 2025)
expect(dateUtils.isTradingDay(new Date(2025, 5, 5))).toBe(true);
// Friday (June 6, 2025)
expect(dateUtils.isTradingDay(new Date(2025, 5, 6))).toBe(true);
});
it('should return false for weekends (Saturday-Sunday)', () => {
// Saturday (June 7, 2025)
expect(dateUtils.isTradingDay(new Date(2025, 5, 7))).toBe(false);
// Sunday (June 8, 2025)
expect(dateUtils.isTradingDay(new Date(2025, 5, 8))).toBe(false);
});
});
describe('getNextTradingDay', () => {
it('should return the next day when current day is a weekday and next day is a weekday', () => {
// Monday -> Tuesday
const monday = new Date(2025, 5, 2);
const tuesday = new Date(2025, 5, 3);
expect(dateUtils.getNextTradingDay(monday).toDateString()).toBe(tuesday.toDateString());
});
it('should skip weekends when getting next trading day', () => {
// Friday -> Monday
const friday = new Date(2025, 5, 6);
const monday = new Date(2025, 5, 9);
expect(dateUtils.getNextTradingDay(friday).toDateString()).toBe(monday.toDateString());
});
it('should handle weekends as input correctly', () => {
// Saturday -> Monday
const saturday = new Date(2025, 5, 7);
const monday = new Date(2025, 5, 9);
expect(dateUtils.getNextTradingDay(saturday).toDateString()).toBe(monday.toDateString());
// Sunday -> Monday
const sunday = new Date(2025, 5, 8);
expect(dateUtils.getNextTradingDay(sunday).toDateString()).toBe(monday.toDateString());
});
});
describe('getPreviousTradingDay', () => {
it('should return the previous day when current day is a weekday and previous day is a weekday', () => {
// Tuesday -> Monday
const tuesday = new Date(2025, 5, 3);
const monday = new Date(2025, 5, 2);
expect(dateUtils.getPreviousTradingDay(tuesday).toDateString()).toBe(monday.toDateString());
});
it('should skip weekends when getting previous trading day', () => {
// Monday -> Friday
const monday = new Date(2025, 5, 9);
const friday = new Date(2025, 5, 6);
expect(dateUtils.getPreviousTradingDay(monday).toDateString()).toBe(friday.toDateString());
});
it('should handle weekends as input correctly', () => {
// Saturday -> Friday
const saturday = new Date(2025, 5, 7);
const friday = new Date(2025, 5, 6);
expect(dateUtils.getPreviousTradingDay(saturday).toDateString()).toBe(friday.toDateString());
// Sunday -> Friday
const sunday = new Date(2025, 5, 8);
expect(dateUtils.getPreviousTradingDay(sunday).toDateString()).toBe(friday.toDateString());
});
});
});

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import { fixedRiskPositionSize } from '../src/calculations/position-sizing.js';
try {
console.log('Testing position sizing calculations...');
const result = fixedRiskPositionSize({
accountSize: 100000,
riskPercentage: 2,
entryPrice: 100,
stopLoss: 95
});
console.log('Fixed risk position size result:', result);
console.log('Expected: 400 shares');
console.log('Test passed:', result === 400);
} catch (error) {
console.error('Error:', error);
}

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/**
* Validation script for position sizing calculations
*/
import {
fixedRiskPositionSize,
kellyPositionSize,
volatilityTargetPositionSize,
equalWeightPositionSize,
atrBasedPositionSize,
expectancyPositionSize,
calculatePortfolioHeat,
validatePositionSize
} from '../src/calculations/position-sizing.js';
console.log('=== Position Sizing Calculation Validation ===\n');
// Test 1: Fixed Risk Position Sizing
console.log('1. Fixed Risk Position Sizing');
const fixedRiskResult = fixedRiskPositionSize({
accountSize: 100000,
riskPercentage: 2,
entryPrice: 100,
stopLoss: 95,
leverage: 1
});
console.log(` Account: $100,000, Risk: 2%, Entry: $100, Stop: $95`);
console.log(` Result: ${fixedRiskResult} shares`);
console.log(` Expected: 400 shares (Risk: $2,000 ÷ $5 risk per share = 400)`);
console.log(`${fixedRiskResult === 400 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Test 2: Kelly Criterion
console.log('2. Kelly Criterion Position Sizing');
const kellyResult = kellyPositionSize({
winRate: 0.6,
averageWin: 150,
averageLoss: -100
}, 100000);
console.log(` Win Rate: 60%, Avg Win: $150, Avg Loss: $100`);
console.log(` Result: $${kellyResult.toFixed(0)}`);
console.log(` Kelly formula with safety factor applied`);
console.log(`${kellyResult > 0 && kellyResult < 25000 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Test 3: Volatility Target Position Sizing
console.log('3. Volatility Target Position Sizing');
const volResult = volatilityTargetPositionSize({
price: 100,
volatility: 0.20,
targetVolatility: 0.10,
lookbackDays: 30
}, 100000);
console.log(` Price: $100, Asset Vol: 20%, Target Vol: 10%`);
console.log(` Result: ${volResult} shares`);
console.log(` Expected: 500 shares (Vol ratio 0.5 * $100k = $50k ÷ $100 = 500)`);
console.log(`${volResult === 500 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Test 4: Equal Weight Position Sizing
console.log('4. Equal Weight Position Sizing');
const equalResult = equalWeightPositionSize(100000, 5, 100);
console.log(` Account: $100,000, Positions: 5, Price: $100`);
console.log(` Result: ${equalResult} shares`);
console.log(` Expected: 200 shares ($100k ÷ 5 = $20k ÷ $100 = 200)`);
console.log(`${equalResult === 200 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Test 5: ATR-Based Position Sizing
console.log('5. ATR-Based Position Sizing');
const atrResult = atrBasedPositionSize(100000, 2, 5, 2, 100);
console.log(` Account: $100,000, Risk: 2%, ATR: $5, Multiplier: 2`);
console.log(` Result: ${atrResult} shares`);
console.log(` Expected: 200 shares (Risk: $2k ÷ Stop: $10 = 200)`);
console.log(`${atrResult === 200 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Test 6: Expectancy Position Sizing
console.log('6. Expectancy Position Sizing');
const expectancyResult = expectancyPositionSize(100000, 0.6, 150, -100, 5);
console.log(` Win Rate: 60%, Avg Win: $150, Avg Loss: $100`);
console.log(` Result: $${expectancyResult.toFixed(0)}`);
console.log(` Expectancy: 0.6*150 - 0.4*100 = 50 (positive expectancy)`);
console.log(`${expectancyResult > 0 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Test 7: Portfolio Heat Calculation
console.log('7. Portfolio Heat Calculation');
const heatResult = calculatePortfolioHeat([
{ value: 10000, risk: 500 },
{ value: 15000, risk: 750 },
{ value: 20000, risk: 1000 }
], 100000);
console.log(` Positions with risks: $500, $750, $1000`);
console.log(` Result: ${heatResult}%`);
console.log(` Expected: 2.25% (Total risk: $2250 ÷ $100k = 2.25%)`);
console.log(`${heatResult === 2.25 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Test 8: Position Size Validation
console.log('8. Position Size Validation');
const validationResult = validatePositionSize(50, 100, 100000, 10, 2);
console.log(` Position: 50 shares @ $100, Account: $100k, Max: 10%`);
console.log(` Result: ${validationResult.isValid ? 'Valid' : 'Invalid'}`);
console.log(` Position value: $5,000 (5% of account - within 10% limit)`);
console.log(`${validationResult.isValid ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Test edge cases
console.log('=== Edge Case Testing ===\n');
// Zero/negative inputs
console.log('9. Zero/Negative Input Handling');
const zeroResult = fixedRiskPositionSize({
accountSize: 0,
riskPercentage: 2,
entryPrice: 100,
stopLoss: 95
});
console.log(` Zero account size result: ${zeroResult}`);
console.log(`${zeroResult === 0 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}`);
const equalStopResult = fixedRiskPositionSize({
accountSize: 100000,
riskPercentage: 2,
entryPrice: 100,
stopLoss: 100
});
console.log(` Equal entry/stop result: ${equalStopResult}`);
console.log(`${equalStopResult === 0 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
// Negative expectancy Kelly
console.log('10. Negative Expectancy Kelly');
const negativeKellyResult = kellyPositionSize({
winRate: 0.3,
averageWin: 100,
averageLoss: -200
}, 100000);
console.log(` Win Rate: 30%, Avg Win: $100, Avg Loss: $200`);
console.log(` Result: $${negativeKellyResult}`);
console.log(` Expected: $0 (negative expectancy)`);
console.log(`${negativeKellyResult === 0 ? 'PASS' : 'FAIL'}\n`);
console.log('=== Validation Complete ===');
console.log('All position sizing calculations have been validated!');
console.log('The functions now include proper input validation, edge case handling,');
console.log('and mathematically correct implementations.');